Central Asian Border Violence and Chinese Pipeline Plans

A recent border clash between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, reported July 28, 2014, may put a major hurdle in the way of  a Chinese gas pipeline project in the area.  The incident, in which one Tajik died and eight were wounded, highlights continued tension between the two Central Asian countries going back to January of this year. China had planned to begin construction on Line D of the Central Asian Gas Pipeline (CAGP)  from Turkmenistan through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. If ethnic tensions increase, the viability of the pipeline’s route may come into question.

While China has significant natural gas capacity from Central Asian countries at present, energy pipelines are more than simply a means to oil and gas for China. Oil and gas pipelines play prominently in Chinese economic integration plans with neighboring countries. Line D may be the tie that binds all of Central Asia to China by further integrating Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan into the Chinese regional economic fold.  This is particularly important for China as regional economic integration can be transformed into other forms of state-to-state cooperation, especially in response to an uncertain security situation in Afghanistan and Xinjiang. If China works to act as a mediator between the two it would highlight not only the importance of Line D but also Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Chinese regional plans.