China to Reduce Shale Gas Targets

China’s National Energy Administration recently released a report indicating the country will not reach its 2020 shale gas target of 60 -100 billion cubic meters. Revised estimates now put Chinese shale gas production at 30 billion cubic meters by 2020. The major hindrances cited were water supply issues, high levels of seismic activity near shale deposits, and the geological difficulty of Chinese shale deposits.

The news is disheartening for several reasons. Given the large reserves in China, shale gas difficulties mean a cleaner alternative to coal based power is no longer fast approaching. The reduction in expected shale gas production also means China will be more dependent on foreign natural gas suppliers to meet growing energy needs. This means waiting out long-term pipeline projects and continuing reliance on, from a Chinese perspective, easily disrupted sea routes.

The reduction in estimated output is not without its positives. Realization that large scale shale production in areas of high seismic activity is  not prudent reduces the risk of industrial and environmental incidents. The reduction of water hogging  fracking techniques in a country on the verge of a water crisis also brings forth its own social and economic benefits. The National Energy Administration’s announcement is not likely to affect current projects in Sichuan, China’s shale gas hub for the time being.

(Link to original story in The Economist)